The consensus is that sea-level rise will occur in Southern California, but how much and when are questions that complicate developing mitigation plans.

Encinitas, a city of almost 60,000, 25 miles north of San Diego, is trying to get a grip on those questions to deliver a Coastal Vulnerability and Resiliency Plan. If only they had a crystal ball. 
It is impossible to foresee the future 50 to 100 years from now, and that makes planning for eventualities that far in advance a crap shoot. So you do it incrementally.

“If I knew the future of climatic events — when’s the next tsunami going to hit Crescent City—put how much sea-level rise is there going to be by 2100 in that category — I wouldn’t be a professor at Scripps,” said Bob Guza, professor emeritus for the Integrative Oceanography Division at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “I could make a fortune in the insurance industry.”

He went on to say that he expects there to be one to six feet of sea-level rise in the area by 2100. “It could be more than that,” he said. “I don’t think it will be less.”

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