It’s been well documented that wildfires in California and elsewhere are becoming more frequent and more intense, and climatologists say the warming atmosphere assures that this is the new normal. That trend also means different patterns of precipitation — perhaps the same annual rainfall totals but more intense patterns of precipitation during certain periods.  

What this all adds up to is more wildfires followed by more landslides like the one that struck the city of Montecito in Santa Barbara County in January 2018. That event produced debris flows so robust they killed 23 people despite warnings.  

A recent study by the United States Geological Survey was aimed at shedding light on these debris flows and what could be done to reduce potential damage via mitigation efforts. Experts suggest that as rainfall is more concentrated, more landslides will occur than before and may be an annual event in California. 

“Climatologists are telling us that we might be expecting more intense precipitation and a longer burning season,” said Jason Kean, a hydrologist for USGS and part of a team that creates hazard maps of debris flow after a wildfire to give responders some direction. He is the lead author of the study.  

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